a228  1348  10 Feb 90
AM-Future World,0642
Brave New World in 2030: Bicycles and No Utility Bills
By H. JOSEF HEBERT
Associated Press Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) - In an age of worry about the ''greenhouse''
effect, ozone depletion and air pollution, the thought of trying to
solve the Earth's environmental problems may be enough to give many
people a headache.
    But what if we succeed? What will the world be like sometime in the
next century?
    The Worldwatch Institute, a Washington-based environmental think
tank, sketches considers such questions in its annual look at the
Earth and its environmental problems.
    The institute selected the year 2030 as the point at which mankind
will succeed in building ''a sustainable society'' - one in which
basic human needs are met without jeopardizing future generations by
putting the environment at risk.
    That's a scant 40 years from today, soon enough that hundreds of
millions of people living today will - if it comes to pass - still be
able to see it. ''It's closer than World War II,'' Lester Brown,
president of Worldwatch and the study's director, said in an
interview last week.
    While there is certainly no agreement within the scientific or
environmental communities on whether such a world realistically can
emerge in such a short period of time, the Worldwatch researchers
provide a peek into at least one scenario that might develop if
mankind comes to grips with today's environmental challenges.
    On a ''self sustainable'' Earth in the year 2030, Worldwatch says
our society may look like this:
    -Fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas no longer will be
relied upon as the primary source of energy; instead energy needs
will come primarily from solar and wind power. Farmers will harvest
''energy crops'' in marginal lands to run motor vehicles.
    -Solar thermal plants will stretch across vast deserts and prairie
lands. Some ranchers may earn more money from selling electricity
than cattle as cities such as Denver and Kansas City, Mo., rely on
the wind for their electric needs.
    -The automobile no longer will be king - replaced by mass transit
and in many cases the bicycle, with bike trails crisscrossing
communities. The cars that survive will get 100 or more miles to the
gallon of fuel.
    ''People will be living closer to their jobs, and much socializing
and shopping will be done by bike rather than automobile,'' the
Worldwatch researchers say. Mass transit will welcome
''bike-and-ride'' customers.
    -Citizens will be staying home more, relying on computerized
delivery services for their shopping and working in satellite offices
at home, freeing today's crowded highways.
    -Conserving energy will be a hallmark of the ''self sustainable''
world of 2030 since total global carbon emissions, which come from
burning fossil fuels and are blamed for global warming, would be
reduced markedly.
    -Homes will be so weather tight that it will not pay to install a
furnace. Instead, homeowners will rely on small electric heaters. And
lights and appliances will be so efficient residents may see ''almost
the complete elimination of utility bills.''
    -Today's largely ''throw-away-society'' will be replaced by a
''recycling ethic'' that will touch everything from milk bottles to
automobiles.
    -The steel industry will rely on old automobiles, appliances and
other equipment for raw materials.
    -Bottles containing everything from beer to milk will be
interchangeable and returnable, perhaps routed through a central
computerized inventory. And the fancy, often excessive, packaging
that lines today's supermarkets will be prohibited by government
regulators to cut down on waste.
    Shoppers will return to using canvas bags to carry home their
purchases, ridding supermarkets of today's reusable paper or plastic
bags.
    The Worldwatch researchers acknowledged these changes will require
''a new set of values'' in the self sustainable world of 2030.
    ''It will become unfashionable to own fancy new cars and clothes,''
they say, adding, ''This shift (away from materialism) will be among
the hardest to make.''
    
 
AP-NY-02-10-90 1634EST
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